Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Jan 25 – 26, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The snowpack has been rain-soaked at most elevations, while new wind slabs exist at ridge top. Sunny breaks on Monday may have a destabilizing effect on the snowpack. Pay close attention to conditions that change with elevation and time of day.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Snowfall and extreme southwest winds have created new wind slabs in the high alpine. Watch for triggering in the lee of ridgecrests and in gullies. Wind has also shaped new cornices which may be large and fragile.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Pushy loose wet avalanches remain a concern in steep terrain, especially if the sun comes out on Monday. At higher elevations, rain-soaked snow may increase the chances of waking-up deep persistent weaknesses which formed earlier in the season.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A weak ridge will deflect wet pacific moisture streams to the north of the region. The south coast will only receive trace amounts of precipitation throughout the forecast period while high freezing levels will persist. Monday: Mix of sun and cloud / Strong southwest winds / Freezing levels at 3100m Tuesday: Overcast skies with very light rain / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 2200m Wednesday: Increased cloud and light snow / Light southwest winds / Freezing levels at 1500m

Avalanche Summary

At the time of publishing this bulletin, observations were extremely limited. That said, I'm sure recent rain sparked a round of loose wet avalanche activity, while wind slabs may have occurred at higher elevations. Although unlikely, deeper persistent avalanches are still a concern in isolated terrain as the snowpack adjusts to recent storm loading and penetration from rain. Glide crack avalanches are also a concern, particularly in areas with smooth ground cover. Any activity on these deeper weaknesses would be very destructive in nature.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50 cm of settled storm snow has now been saturated by rain up to about 2100m. At the highest elevations, moist snowfall has been shifted into dense wind slabs in lee terrain. New cornice development has also been noted. The older storm snow overlies a hard crust and/or surface hoar layer which formed in January. The bond at this interface will be largely elevation dependant as rain may have penetrated the snowpack enough to dissolve the crust in many areas. At higher elevations where snow has fallen, this interface may still be reactive with the potential for large avalanches.Although unlikely to trigger, deeper snowpack weaknesses are still on our radar, especially in areas where the snowpack is rain-soaked.

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