Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 20th, 2011–Nov 21st, 2011

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

This bulletin is based on limited data. Local variation in conditions and danger levels are likely to exist. To produce more accurate forecasts, we need information. Please send an email to [email protected].

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Monday: The storm begins. Expect snowfall to increase throughout the day and winds to turn southwest. Freezing levels could reach 1500m, Tuesday: Snow, at times heavy. Continued strong southwest winds and freezing levels peaking at 1700m. Wednesday: Snow tapering through the day, with a bit of a lull late in the day. Southwest winds continue with freezing levels reaching 1200m.I would not be surprised with 80-100cm of new snow within the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity has slowed down with the colder temperatures, but recent reports include wind slab avalanches up to Size 2.5 failing on the crust/surface hoar combo that was buried November 9. Some slabs were up to a metre deep and pulled back into low angled terrain on ridges showing incredible propensity for propagation. The critical elevation band for the crust/surface hoar combo is between 1800 and 2050m.

Snowpack Summary

There has been limited new snow in the past couple of days and the colder temperatures have tightened up the storm snow instabilities. The snowpack sits at about 100cm in sheltered locations at treeline, with deeper, wind deposited pockets in the alpine and around ridgeline features. A rain crust, buried November 9 is prominent between 1800m and 2050m and has surface hoar crystals either above, within or slightly below it. This crust/surface hoar combo is buried 40 to 70cm and is the deeper layer of concern.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.