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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 28th, 2012–Nov 29th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A deep low pressure system off the Gulf of Alaska will be bringing a very moist, warm and active weather pattern over the next five days. The system will move into the region Wednesday afternoon, and persist with moderate to heavy amounts of precipitation through the weekend. Thursday: FLVL’s 1500 m, snow amounts up to 30 cm, ridegtop winds SE 40-gusting 70 km/hr, alpine temps -2.0.Friday: FLVL’s 1400 m, snow amounts 15-25 cm, ridgetop winds SE 60-gusting 90 km/hr, alpine temps -3.0.Saturday: FLVL’s 1400 m falling 1000 m overnight, snow amounts heavy, ridgetop winds S 20 kn/hr, alpine temps -3.0.

Avalanche Summary

No new observations today. Reports from the Whistler area on Tuesday include a Size 2.5 deep slab avalanche running on the early November facet/crust combo triggered with small explosives low on the slope. Check out Wayne Flann's Avalanche Blog for more information, including photos. Also of note, there was a report of a size 2.5 skier triggered avalanche on Saturday. This avalanche occurred on a northeast aspect in the alpine. It was triggered from the bottom of the slope, and likely released on the early November layer. Widespread natural avalanche activity will be the theme over the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

The region will see heavy amounts of new snow, and strong winds. Storm slabs will load a variety of weak surfaces. These surfaces consist of large surface hoar, a thin sun crust, surface facets, moist snow, or preserved storm snow depending on elevation, sun and wind exposure, slope angle, time of day, and aspect. A storm snow instability has been noted down 30 cm, giving consistent moderate "pops" results in snowpack tests. Snowpack tests continue to show sudden collapse (or "drops") results on the early November facet/crust deep persistent weakness, but because this weakness is so close to the ground in most areas, associated avalanche activity will likely be limited to slopes with smooth ground cover (e.g. scree slopes, rock slabs, summer firn, glaciers, etc.).

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.