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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2013–Mar 31st, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Avalanche danger will increase this afternoon on sun effected terrain.  Plan your trip to take advantage of good skiing and lower danger on sheltered north and east aspects.  Avoid exposure to solar facing terrain as it heats up.

Weather Forecast

Mild and sunny conditions are forecast through Monday. No precipitation is expected with light NW winds.  Freezing levels today will rise to around 2400 m with alpine temps ~ +5.

Snowpack Summary

Strong solar radiation and rising freezing levels have deteriorated ski quality on all but sheltered N aspects. Moist surface snow and crusts are found at all elevations, with growing surface hoar.  Avalanches have been triggered from thin snowpack areas weakened by warm temps.

Avalanche Summary

Afternoons have seen small loose avalanche cycles mostly concentration to SE-W asp. Most of these are running in the surface snow. Below treeline and shallow exposed terrain with isothermal snow are weak and can be skier triggered. Cornice failures are still possible, recently not many failures have triggered avalanches.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.