Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Regions
Cariboos.
Large and destructive human-triggered avalanches are still possible. Remain suspicious of steep, unsupported slopes at treeline and in the alpine.
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Very light flurries and a mix of sun and cloud are expected for the forecast period as a ridge of pressure stays parked over the province. Alpine winds will be moderate to strong from the northwest on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday the winds should be generally light from the southwest. Alpine temperatures should hover at about -12 on Tuesday, rising slightly for Wednesday and Thursday. No significant snowfall is expected until Friday.
Avalanche Summary
We haven't had any new reports of avalanche activity. This may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions.If you have any observations, please send them to [email protected].
Snowpack Summary
Approximately 100cm of recent storm snow sits on weak crystals which formed throughout early and mid-November. These weak crystals include facets on a hard rain crust, and surface hoar (which may also sit on a crust on steep southerly slopes). Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment, but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Selkirk/Monashees because the formation conditions were generally the same. Snowpack tests on Sunday in Rogers Pass suggest the layers can still be human triggered, and if triggered, are capable of producing wide propagations and large avalanches. Recent strong and variable winds may have redistributed surface snow creating dense wind slabs in exposed terrain.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.