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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

May 1st, 2014–May 2nd, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

There was no overnight freeze and the sun is currently baking East and South aspects. Today is not a good day to go skiing.

Weather Forecast

Today we will see freezing levels stay near 3400m, then dropping to 3000m overnight. There will be a gradual increase in cloud cover throughout the day, and we should expect to see scattered showers with freezing levels around 3000m tomorrow. No, that does not sound good for ski quality nor avalanche danger!

Snowpack Summary

There was no overnight refreeze of the surface crust, with alpine temperatures remaining well above freezing through the night. Expect the surface conditions to be soft, at best, and isothermal in many places. East, South, and West aspects will be isothermal today and should be avoided.

Avalanche Summary

Loose avalanches to size 3 were observed in the late afternoon and overnight in the highway corridor, many of them scrubbing down to ground. These wet avalanches have a lot of power behind them and will continue to fail with the warm temperatures.

Confidence

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.