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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2019–Jan 1st, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Avalanche hazard will change dramatically throughout the day! Be extra cautious this afternoon!

Weather Forecast

A low-Pressure system is bearing down on Rogers pass today! We are forecasted to receive 25cm+ by the end of the ski day, accompanied by moderate-gusting strong winds from the South and rising freezing levels. Tonight we should get another 20cm, with even stronger wind, and the freezing level will rise to 1500m tomorrow.

Snowpack Summary

20-30cm of new snow fell since the 27th of Dec, burying a 5mm Surface Hoar layer. Mod to Strong S-SW winds yesterday pm redistributed the new snow on lee features in the Alpine and exposed areas of Tree Line. The mid and lower snowpack has been settling and gaining strength; however, the Dec 11th surface hoar (5-12mm) still persists down 90-130cm.

Avalanche Summary

8 avalanches were recorded in the Highway Corridor Yesterday. Two were relatively small to size 2, recorded by Forecasters and the other 6 were recorded via our Infrasound Detection Array (unknown size). No reports from the backcountry yesterday of Natural, or human triggered avalanches. Natural avalanche activity will increase this afternoon.

Confidence

Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.