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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2019–Dec 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Small avalanches will be easy to trigger in steep terrain. This is as good a time as any to be smart about where you put your uptrack... You never know who might be dropping in above you.

Weather Forecast

A "slack flow" will continue to give a mix of sun and cloud through this evening. A series of weak fronts beginning Monday will give unsettled weather through the week.

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Alpine temps: Low -15 C, High -13 C, light SW ridge wind.

Monday: Cloudy with flurries (up to 5cm). Moderate SW ridge wind.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow now buries the Dec 11 surface hoar layer. This new snow, combined with light southerly wind, is building pockets of soft storm slab in the Alpine. The Nov 23rd surface hoar/crust/facet combo can be found down +/-100cm (SH is most prevalent in sheltered treeline locations) but has become increasingly stubborn in testing.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported or observed.

There were several size 2 natural avalanches in the MacDonald gullies Friday, as well as MIN reports of easily triggered sluffs on all aspects and small skier controlled storm slabs in the Alpine on a North aspect.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.