Avalanche Forecast

Moderate -

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of new snow, beginning in the afternoon. Winds moderate to strong from the southwest. Freezing level to 700 metres with alpine temperatures of -10 in the north of the region, closer to -6 in the south. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Winds light to moderate from the north. Freezing level to 500 metres with alpine temperatures of -10 in the north of the region, closer to 800 metres and -4 in the south. Monday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Winds light to moderate from the west. Freezing level to 400 metres with alpine temperatures of -11 in the north of the region, -7 in the south.

A social media report from Thursday showed an impressive persistent slab release to approximately Size 3 in the Hurley area. The slab was triggered with a cornice cut on an apparently northeast aspect, though it should be noted that the cornice was not large. See the video here. The above report has combined with the Size 3 persistent slab avalanche observed up the Hurley on Friday to suggest an emerging pattern of persistent slab activity in that part of the region. The failure planes of each slide remain uncertain, but the early February surface hoar layer was suspected in Friday's occurrence.A MIN report from Thursday describes two skier-triggered Size 2 wind slab avalanches near Mt. Matier, serving as a reminder that our wind slab problem hasn't disappeared yet. While wind slabs remain a concern throughout the region, a low-probability/high consequence avalanche problem should be driving a more cautious approach to backcountry travel in the north of the region.

Convective flurries have delivered a spotty 5-20 cm of new snow to the region over the past couple of days, with the greatest accumulations occurring in the south. Below the new snow, the previous snow surface consisted of surface facets and surface hoar to 6 mm, as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects. Beneath this new snow interface, 10-30 cm of recent snow overlies the widespread mid-February crust layer at higher elevations. Recent reports suggest this snow is well bonded to the crust. In the north of the region, a facet/surface hoar layer from early February down 60-100 cm remains reactive in snowpack tests and is suspected as the failure plane in at least one of two recent large persistent slab avalanches in the Hurley area. In the south of the region, the mid and lower snowpack are well settled and strong.