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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2016–Feb 10th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Cooler weather with a few light showers should maintain some shallow wet snow or crust layers. Watch for unexpected wet snow deeper than boot top. The cooler weather should limit the avalanche potential Wednesday.

Detailed Forecast

Cooling with cloud cover and a few light rain showers are expected Wednesday. The cooling should allow for firm crusts and limited surface snow to melt, causing a lower probability of wet snow avalanches.

Only very light amounts of rain are expected and that should not cause a significant increase in wet surface snow. 

Continue to watch for loose wet avalanche potential above terrain traps (like above cliffs or near gullies), where even small wet avalanches can become powerful and have unintended consequences.  . 

Watch for recent cornices along ridges which may become sensitive to trigger. 

Snowpack Discussion

Temperatures at Hurricane Ridge have been in the 50's for over 24 hours straight as of Tuesday afternoon! The past two days have seen the warmest weather of the season. Very warm temperatures and solar radiation have caused wet snow conditions with crusts forming nights and mornings while the overall snowpack has settled about 6 inches since Sunday morning.

The very mild temperatures, sunshine and snowpack settlement had likely settled the 14-16 inches of storm snow from late last week.  The settled, moist to wet storm snow is well bonded to a strong rain crust from late January.  

Abundant wet surface snow and sensitive cornices are the current key snowpack features. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.