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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2016–Mar 2nd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

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With several avalanche problems to deal with Wednesday, conservative terrain selection will be essential to stay safe because human triggered avalanches are still likely. Choose moderately angled terrain and avoid wind loaded slopes, saving those steeper lines for another day.

Detailed Forecast

Showers should wind down Wednesday morning with the next frontal system already moving in later Wednesday afternoon. Despite a modest cooling trend, storm related danger will continue through Wednesday due to strong southwest to west winds loading lee slopes during light to moderate showers Tuesday night. 

Storm slab instabilities should be healing but may still be sensitive Wednesday. Wind slab will continue to build Tuesday night on lee slopes with moderate to strong west transport winds. Loose wet avalanches will become more likely on steeper slopes in the afternoon as snow levels begin to rise once again. Avalanches that begin in the new snow may become larger lower down the path as they entrain moist snow at lower elevations.  

With several avalanche problems to deal with Wednesday, conservative terrain selection will be essential to stay safe because human triggered avalanches are still likely. Choose moderately angled terrain and avoid wind loaded slopes, saving those steeper lines for another day.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

Springlike weather under high pressure Feb 23rd and 24th led to abundant sunshine with daytime highs climbing into the 40's and 50's. The fair and mild weather caused surface crusts on solar slopes in most areas by Friday. Also during this period wide-spread surface hoar formed in the NE Cascades, mainly surviving outside of steeper solar aspects. 

A weak front brought light amounts of rain and snow Friday night to Saturday morning, burying the surface hoar layer in the Washington Pass area on 2/26. 

A Pacific frontal system blew through the Cascades mid-day Sunday. A few inches of snow accumulated through the early afternoon above 3-4000 feet near the Cascade crest with rapid drying and very little accumulation further east. Alpine winds were strong with significant W-SW transport winds. By Monday morning, 2-10 inches of new snow had accumulated along the east slopes accompanied by a cooling trend. 

Another strong frontal system brought 6-12 inches of snow along the east slopes through Tuesday afternoon along with a slow warming trend. Rain may have pushed as high as 4500-5000 feet along the central and northeast Cascades Tuesday afternoon. 

We aren't tracking any layers of concern formed earlier this winter in the mid or lower snowpack. 

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Jeff Ward was out near Washington Pass on Thursday and found powder and good ski conditions on north to east slopes. Surface hoar up to 15 mm was also seen on non-solar slopes.

Jeff was out again on Friday and noted widespread 6-8 mm surface hoar on non-solar slopes. On Saturday, Jeff noted the surface hoar buried intact in the Washington Pass area, specifically the Cedar Creek drainage.

NWAC observer Tom Curtis was out at Jove Peak Monday. Jove Peak is NE of Stevens Pass and often overlaps snowpack characteristics of both the east and west slopes of the Cascades. Tom noted few instabilities in the upper snowpack until he observed a large natural wind slab avalanche (R2/D2) on the north side of Jove Peak that probably released Sunday night. The winds slab was 40 cm in depth and stepped down to a 2 mm buried surface hoar layer at 50 cm. The buried surface hoar was rounding, but clearly still sensitive to new loading. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.