Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 19th, 2018 4:47PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada mconlan, Avalanche Canada

Recent snow and strong winds have produced wind slabs in lee features. Watch for signs of avalanche activity and locally unstable snow, such as whumpfing and shooting cracks.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny with afternoon clouds, light westerly winds, alpine temperature near -20 C, freezing level below valley bottom.WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate westerly winds, alpine temperature near -18 C, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Partly cloudy, light easterly winds, alpine temperature -18 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, small (size 1) loose dry and storm slabs were triggered naturally.Avalanche activity will continue as the recent snowfall begins to gain strength. Expect widespread loose dry and storm slab activity as well as wind slab activity in lee features. If triggered, these layers have the potential to release buried weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

Around 30-60 cm of storm snow with strong winds have created widespread loose dry and storm slab avalanche problems.  Some of this snow has been re-distributed with strong winds, creating wind slabs on lee features.  These slabs overly a layer of weak surface hoar buried mid-February that has produced very easy snowpack test results with sudden fracture characters.The lower snowpack in this region is weak with two main concerns:1)     a widespread weak layer from mid-December composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar that is 100-150 cm deep.2)     a rain crust with sugary facets buried in late-November near the bottom of the snowpack. Although the snowpack structure is variable across the region, these persistent weak layers are generally widespread.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Recent storm snow fell with strong winds that have produced touchy wind slabs in lee features on all aspects. These slabs will likely be reactive to natural and human triggers. Be cautious of overhead exposure on solar aspects when the sun is out.
Choose shallow-angled and sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.If triggered, the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, resulting in large avalanches

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs
Several weak layers are lurking in our snowpack.  If triggered, they could propagate far, producing avalanches with high consequences.  Watch out for thin spots in the snowpack, where it is more likely to trigger them.
Avalanches could run full-path if triggered: avoid runout zones of avalanche paths on solar aspects.Be aware of the potential for wide propagation.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Feb 20th, 2018 2:00PM