Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 29th, 2016 7:44AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

ccampbell, Avalanche Canada

South Columbia.

Patience and diligence may be required to resist venturing into complex terrain as the snowpack settles and adjusts to the recent load and warming.

Summary

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated light flurries. Freezing levels around 1200m and light southwesterly winds. SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud and possible isolated light flurries with freezing levels dropping below valley bottoms and light variable winds. MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated light flurries. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and light southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Thursday include a several storm and wind slab avalanches up to Size 2 from natural and human triggers.

Snowpack Summary

Weaknesses exist within and under the recent settled storm snow, with snowpack tests producing easy to moderate results down 15-20cm (or deeper where wind-loaded) on buried surface hoar, decomposing storm snow or a thin crust, and hard results down 45-65 cm on a crust buried mid January. The persistent weak layer of buried surface hoar, sun crusts, rime crusts and/or facets that was buried in early January is now down close to a metre in most places and producing hard but sudden results in snowpack tests. The overlying slab remains primed for triggering and is especially touchy at and below treeline. The lower snowpack is well settled and strong.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh storm and wind slabs are sensitive to human triggers an particulary touchy where they are bonding poorly to recently buried surface hoar or crust.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Surface hoar buried at the beginning of January remains primed for human triggers. The potential for widespread propagation and remote triggering makes this persistent slab particularly tricky to manage.

Use conservative route selection and be aware of the possibility of remote triggering.>Avoid steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Jan 30th, 2016 2:00PM