Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is forecast for Wednesday night. The Duffey Lake area may see up to 15cm of new snow while double that amount may fall in the Coquihalla area. Generally light snowfall (up to 10cm) is forecast for Thursday; however, the convective nature of the weather pattern suggests spring "power flurries" may result in localized accumulations of up to 20cm. A dry ridge should develop on Friday bringing mainly clear skies while overcast conditions are expected on Saturday. Ridgetop winds should be moderate to strong from the southwest on Wednesday night and Thursday, and then become light for Friday and Saturday. Daytime freezing levels are forecast to sit at 1000m on Thursday, 1600m on Friday and 1400m on Saturday.

Recent avalanche observations have been extremely limited. That said, in the neighboring Sea to Sky region natural loose wet avalanches to size 1.5 were reported to have occurred on variety of aspects and elevations on Tuesday. Forecast cooling should limit ongoing loose wet avalanche activity; however, a round of natural storm slab activity is expected on Thursday in response to new snow and strong southwest winds.

Warm temperatures and the "greenhouse effect" from cloudy skies on Tuesday have promoted significant settlement within the recent storm snow. Dry settled powder can be found on high, north facing slopes while classic spring melt-freeze conditions exist on solar aspects above 2000m and all aspects at lower elevations. Potentially deep storm slabs are expected to form on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Below the new snow the snowpack is strong and well-settled throughout with no notable persistent weaknesses. Cornices are huge and fragile.