Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Another storm system hits the coast on Sunday night but not much will make it into the inland region. 5-10cm of snowfall is forecast Sunday overnight and Monday. Alpine winds should be moderate to strong from the southwest and freezing levels should be 1200-1400m. The last weak storm pulse is forecast to bring another 3-6cm for Monday overnight or Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon the storm system should clear out as a weak ridge of high pressure builds. Freezing levels should drop to valley bottom by Tuesday night and alpine winds should die off. Mostly sunny conditions are expected for Wednesday.

On Saturday, three human triggered avalanches were reported from north of the region. A ski cut on a northwest aspect at 1700m caused sluffing which subsequently triggered a size 1.5 slab avalanche which released on the early-January surface hoar. Two 30cm thick soft slab avalanches were ski cut in a northeast facing cross-loaded gulley feature at treeline. On Friday, dry sluffing was reported from steep north facing slopes in the alpine and isolated loose wet sluffing was reported from sun exposed slopes below treeline. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are expected to increase in size and reactivity as the storm continues.

The new storm snow is burying the recently formed mid-January surface hoar layer. Down 20-40cm are the two early-January interfaces which are separated by around 15cm of snow and both consist of a sun crust on steep solar aspects and a layer of surface hoar on sheltered and shady slopes. Moderate to strong southeast through southwest winds have been loading lee features at treeline and in the alpine. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallow snowpack areas that may be more faceted. At lower elevations below treeline recent rain may have saturated the upper snowpack.