Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

The last in the series of storms fizzle out Saturday morning with us waking up to 5-15 cm of new snow. Unsettled conditions will continue through Saturday bringing mostly cloudy skies with some clearing later in the day. Alpine temperatures near -6 with freezing levels falling to 600m. Ridgetop winds will blow light from the southwest with moderate gusts. Sunday morning could see strong outflow winds along coastal inlets with the next Pacific frontal system rolling in by the evening. This could bring anywhere from 5-15 cm, accompanied by strong southerly winds and freezing levels near 1100m. Monday will remain unsettled with cloudy skies and flurries.

On Thursday, minimal new avalanche observations were reported, however, ski cutting produced smaller size 1 loose avalanches in the southern part of the region. With additional snow and strong wind overnight on Friday the recent storm slabs remain reactive to human-triggering on Saturday, especially on wind loaded slopes and features and/ or if the sun comes out in the afternoon. Cornices are reported to large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

Recent storm snow accumulations are 40-80cm overlying a thick melt-freeze crust which extends into the alpine. The snow is reported to be bonding well to the crust and recent avalanches have been failing within the recent storm snow, not on the crust interface. At treeline and below, other crusts may exist in the upper snowpack due to the recently fluctuating freezing levels. Freezing levels on Wednesday climbed to around 2000m and have to fallen to around 1400m. As the freezing level continues to drop, a crust is expected to form at lower elevations. Ongoing southeast through southwest winds have been loading leeward features in the alpine and large cornice development has been reported over the last few days. The weak surface hoar layer from early January can be found down over a meter and is still reactive in isolated snowpack tests but triggering an avalanche on this layer has become unlikely.