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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2013–Feb 1st, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Friday: 3-5 cms expected tonight combined with strong Northwest winds and alpine temperatures about -6.0. Snow ending by morning, becoming high overcast with freezing level rising to about 1100 metres and light Northwest winds.Saturday: Mostly sunny in the South and high overcast in the North with light Southwest winds. Freezing level rising to about 1300 metres. Some areas in the West of the region may experience alpine temperatures above freezing.Sunday: The next Pacific disturbance is expected to move into the interior from the coast. Temperatures should drop below freezing at all elevations before the system arrives.

Avalanche Summary

A couple of cornices were reported to release naturally from North thru East aspects up to size 1.5. Sluffing continues to be reported from steep terrain in wind sheltered areas.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds have transported snow into wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline. These wind slabs are becoming stiffer and tending to propagate fractures further as they continue to develop. Forecast warm temperatures should settle the recent storm slab, and may make it more reactive where it is sitting above the January 23rd weak layer of facets or surface hoar.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.