Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

SATURDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / south winds, 30-50 km/h / alpine low temperature near -10SUNDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods and scattered flurries, 5-10 cm / south winds, 30-55 km/h / freezing level 1400 m / alpine high temperature near -3MONDAY - Flurries, 5-15 cm / south to southwest winds, 30-65 km/h / freezing level 1500 m / alpine high temperature near -4, low temperature near -7TUESDAY - Cloudy with flurries, 5-10 cm / south to southwest winds, 25-45 km/h, gusting to 65 km/h / freezing level 1400 m / alpine high temperature near -5, low temperature near -7

Numerous natural and human triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported in the region on Friday. Some of these avalanches were triggered from a distance (remote triggered). A size 4 natural avalanche was reported to have run full path, burying a road on the west side of Kinbasket Lake. This avalanche occurred in the North Columbia region, but it is a significant event and is very close to the boundary between the North Columbia and Cariboo regions. These full path avalanches can catch people by surprise, especially when there is little to no snow in the valley bottoms. A report of this avalanche can be found on the Mountain Information Network here

60-90 cm of recent storm snow sits on a weak layer that consists of facets (sugary snow), surface hoar (feathery crystals), and a sun crust (on south aspects). Strong winds have promoted widespread slab formation.A weak layer from mid November is now buried up to 150 cm and consists of surface hoar in shady locations, and a sun crust on steep south facing slopes. The potential may exist for smaller avalanches to step down and trigger this deeper layer, resulting in very large avalanches. The most likely place for this layer to be a problem is on steep, south facing slopes at treeline where the surface hoar sits on the sun crust.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. The probability of triggering this layer is low, but the most suspect areas would be large, steep, rocky alpine features with a shallow snowpack. It would likely take a large trigger such as a cornice fall to produce an avalanche on this layer.