Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Regions
Vancouver Island.
Confidence
High - Weather models in agreement. When and where convective alpine snow showers fall remains difficult to pinpoint.
Travel & Terrain Advice
Seek terrain options went either entering wind loaded terrain or when considering traveling over a wind effected terrain feature like a convex roll. Avoid south aspect terrain, when daytime temperatures begin to rise and if and when the sun comes out. Identify terrain traps and avoid as even a small loose wet avalanche will gain mass and pose a potential threat. Provide a wide berth and increase the margin of safety when travelling either above or below cornices.
Avalanche Summary
No new natural avalanches observed and no reports of skier triggered avalanches. If you have any information about conditions or activity in the back country or If you have observed avalanche activity or been involved in an avalanche, please send your observations to us at [email protected].
Snowpack Summary
Strong south wind and snow fall amounts between 30 and 50 cm over the past forecast period have contributed to variable surface conditions and wind slabs have developed on lee aspects. Testing has found this newly transported snow is binding but producing moderate resistant planar results. The march 22 crust can now be found down over 145 cm and is still reactive to testing but all within the hard range. The lower snow pack is well settled and continues to strengthen.
Snowpack Details
Surface: Variable surface conditions with a breakable crust. Upper: Moist and wet snow. Mid: March 22 melt freeze crust can be found down from 90 to 150 centimeters. Lower: Well settled
Past Weather
Strong south east and south west winds and moderate to at times heavy snowfall rates have deposited between 40 to 60 centimeters down as low as 800 meters. This past weather event has rebuilt the upper snow pack with various layers of moist and wet snow. Following Fridays winter like storm, daytime temperatures rose with cool nights, these factors combined with solar effect created a breakable crust on all aspects and at all elevations.
Weather Forecast
A Southern flow followed by a ridge of high pressure in the region will deflect most of the weather around the forecast area. Beginning Monday, we will see some relief from pacific weather fronts with clearing and some sun, very little precipitation and mostly light to moderate north winds. Monday: no new snowfall. Temperatures 1 overnight rising to 5 mid day, winds light south east. Freezing level 1000 m rising to 1600 m. Tuesday: no new snowfall slight possibility of rainfall. Temperatures 0 overnight rising to 4 by mid day, winds light to moderate north west. Freezing level 900 m to 1200. Wednesday: 5 to 10 cm new snowfall, temperatures 0 rising to 5 mid day, winds light to moderate south west. Freezing level 800 to 1400 m.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.