Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Tuesday night: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of new snow. Extreme west winds.Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 3-5 cm of new snow, increasing a bit overnight. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7.Thursday: Mainly cloudy with continuing flurries bringing another trace to 5 cm of new snow, easing overnight. Extreme southwest winds easing over the day. Alpine high temperatures around -6.Friday: Cloudy with another round of flurries bringing about 5 cm of new snow, continuing and transitioning to wet flurries in the evening. Strong to extreme southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures increasing to about -1 as freezing levels rise to 1500 metres.

A MIN report from Ashman (west of Smithers) describes two avalanches in north-facing gullies at lower treeline elevations see here. We have very limited reports from this region so it is import to supplement this forecast with your own observations. If you have been out, please submit any observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

An initial 5-10 cm of new snow has dusted the region, the first accumulations brought by a series of storms impacting us this week. The combination of new snow and forecast strong south winds will form thicker wind deposits at higher elevations. The new snow will likely bond poorly to the weak surface hoar and facets that have been sitting on the surface for the past week (see this MIN report).A hard crust has been reported 10-20 cm below the surface, and in some locations there is an early season crust with facets near the bottom of the snowpack.Expect an average snow depth of 60-120 cm in the alpine. This decreases dramatically at lower elevations, where the primary hazards remain the rocks, stumps, and open creeks lurking beneath thin snow cover.