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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 15th, 2018–Apr 16th, 2018

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Columbia.

It might be spring but it's still winter up high.  Touchy storm slabs exist at treeline and above. Loose, wet avalanches are a concern at lower elevations.  Minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snow, wind or rain.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-5 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southeast. Alpine temperature near -3. Freezing level 1100 m.MONDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 10-20 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southeast. Alpine temperature near -3. Freezing level 1700 m.TUESDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 10-15 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, northwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1600 m.WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light, southeast. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1600 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Saturday saw widespread avalanche activity with natural, cornice, skier, and explosive triggered storm slab releases (size 2-2.5) on all aspects in the alpine and in immediate lee areas at treeline.Friday there were reports of several natural and skier-triggered storm snow releases (size 1) in steep and leeward alpine terrain. As well as several natural storm slab releases up to size 2 on alpine, northeast through southeast aspects.Thursday pockets of reactive wind slab up to size 1 in alpine lees were reported, as well as skier-triggered, loose, wet avalanches to size 1.5 up to 2100m on solar aspects and below 1900m on north aspects. There were also reports from neighboring Glacier National Park on Thursday of a loose wet size 2 on a south aspect at 2100 m, and a size 4 slab that is thought to have been cornice triggered on a north aspect at 2800 m.Tuesday there was a report of a natural size 2 wind slab avalanche that was observed on a north facing feature at 2800 m.

Snowpack Summary

About 20-40 cm of new snow overlies a crust on all aspects to at least 2300 m (and possibly higher on south-facing slopes), while 50-60 cm of storm snow can be found at higher elevations. There are now a few different crusts in the upper snowpack, with only the most recently crust posing a concern for the recent storm snow.There is some lingering concern around the mid-March Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in the alpine where it is found 80 to 120 cm below the surface. This buried crust/surface hoar interface was widely reactive but has not produced any avalanche activity in the past week. It is likely trending towards dormancy, but we need to keep it in the back of our minds as it is capable of producing large avalanches should it be triggered (think larger triggers such as; sleds, step-down from a surface avalanche or, a cornice collapse).Deeper persistent weak layers from December and January are considered dormant at this time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.