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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2017–Feb 3rd, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Expect a drastic change in snow stability when the predicted storm arrives. Tomorrow looks reasonable, but the storm could be early.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tomorrow will see only trace amounts of snow as the incoming weather approaches. Winds will be light from the west and a daytime high of -11. We are expecting a storm to come in over the week-end. The snow amounts are uncertain right now, but we may see upwards of 30cm.

Avalanche Summary

On a snow survey flight today, only one new avalanche was noted. It was a sz2 that came out out of a crossloaded moraine feature. It had stepped down through the various windslabs.

Snowpack Summary

Widespread wind affect can be found in the alpine and open treeline areas. This translates to a hard slab resting on top of the very weak mid to lower snowpack. Not a lot of cracking or whumphing was noted today, but hollow sounding slabs are very common. On east aspects there are still pockets of wind sifted snow that offers some good skiing. Below treeline is the same old story. Mostly a weak and un-supportive snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.