The incoming weather system will lead to an increase in danger levels. The more significant increase is likely to occur Tuesday, but keep an eye on localized conditions if more snow falls than is anticipated on Monday.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A low pressure system is approaching, but it is unclear as to how much snow we will get. Models vary from 10 to 15cm by Tuesday. What is clear is that the winds will be strong to extreme from the West for the next few days. Monday will remain cool with a high of only -15 °C, but Tuesday should be a bit warmer.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous loose dry avalanches up to size 2.0 in steep Alpine and Treeline terrain were observed today. Field teams did ski cut a few wind slabs up to 30cm deep that were in the size 1.0 to 1.5 range in wind affected terrain below ridge crests in immediate lees.
Snowpack Summary
Variable wind slab conditions exist in the Alpine and open areas at Treeline. Strong winds today are contributing further to this issue. The November 12th crust layer is buried 50 to 70cm and continues to give widely variable test results, indicating the need to carefully evaluate each terrain feature. Otherwise the snowpack is weak and facetted after almost 2 weeks of continuously cold temperatures.
Problems
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.