Freezing levels are important at this time of year as well as input from solar radiation. Danger levels will increase quickly with input from the sun or rising temps. Pay attention.
Confidence
Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
A few more cm of snow may fall overnight and then the flurries are forecast to end. Forecasts are calling for cool temps overngiht so we can expect there to be a good freeze overngiht. If there isnt a good freeze, danger levels may be higher than forecast on so pay attention to the quality of the freeze. monday may also see some sunny breaks so pay close attention to solar aspects if the sun comes out. These areas will quickly loose stability once the sun hits these slopes.
Avalanche Summary
A few loose dry avalanches from the alpine in steep unskiable terrain up to sz 2.
Snowpack Summary
10-15cm of snow over the past 24hr from convective flurries. On solar aspects there are a few different crusts in the upper snowpack down 10-30cm as a result of the warm temperatures. These crusts can be found up to 2700m on solar aspects and 2100m and below on all aspects. On more northern aspects the recent snow has seen some isolated wind affect along ridgelines in the alpine but generally, the winds have been light. Watch for isoalted windslabs along ridgelines. Deep down the basal facets are still lurking producing moderate sudden collapse sheers. Despite it starting to look like spring, the snowpack in the alpine is still very much winter like. Remember any slope that hasnt released still has the potential to run on these basal facets resulting in a large avalanche.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.