Avalanche Forecast

On Thursday, an approaching weather system should bring light rain and snow at moderate snow levels during the daylight hours. Mixed precipitation may be seen in the Passes Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will become more intense Thursday evening.

This should minimally increase the avalanche danger Thursday. Shallow new storm and wind slab may develop by the end of the day near and above treeline. Loose wet avalanches seem unlikely below treeline even with rain given the consolidated state of the snowpack.  

On backcountry travel safety note, watch for terrain hazards (exposed rocks, trees, streams, etc.) at lower elevations and on wind scoured aspects. On non-solar aspects with a slick and supportable crust, take extra caution when traversing steep slopes and be prepared to self-arrest if necessary.

West of the crest about 5-15 inches of snowfall on January 4th was followed by about 3 to 7 inches of rain on January 5th with a warming trend. This led to a natural avalanche cycle west of the crest.

Unseasonably high freezing levels with temperature inversions and without any significant precipitation has characterized the weather since the last significant storm.

This drained, further consolidated and generally reset the upper or even entire snowpack. Surface melt-freeze crusts of varying thicknesses formed over stabilized rounded grain layers. Some windward or southerly aspects have little if any snow cover.  Only small wet loose avalanches have been reported recently on southerly aspects.