Avalanche Forecast

Skies should remain relatively clear Wednesday with continued warm temperatures. Freezing levels are expected to remain at about 8000 ft Wednesday and along with sunshine should maintain wet snow conditions with a likelihood of triggered loose-wet avalanches near and below treeline.  Above tree-line areas should expect weakening cornices along ridges and possible older wind slab on open lee slopes. These conditions will warrant careful travel and terrain choices. 

Watch for wet surface snow conditions and given the deep recent storm snow, expect any wet-loose avalanches that start small to possibly entrain large amounts of snow.  Avoid terrain traps and steep slopes and watch for signs of natural wet loose activity.   

Cornices have grown large over the last 2 weeks. A cornice failure could provide a large enough load to trigger a destructive avalanche. With the warming Tuesday...expect cornices to become more sensitive and likely to fail.  

Continue your careful snow pack evaluation and cautious terrain selections during the work week.

Recent Northwest Weather

An extended mild and dry period occurred the latter half of January generally forming a crust in all areas. Very cold weather followed in early February which produced light low density snowfall, near surface faceting, and faceting near and just above the crust.

Weaker frontal systems last weekend followed the frequent strong storms over the past 2 weeks.  We have finely ended the extended storm cycle as of Monday night, capping off impressive amounts of some 6-7 feet of new snow with a rain event that reached to near 7000 feet in the Hurricane Ridge area and likely other Olympic areas. 

Tuesday has seen well above freezing temperatures hitting 48 F at Hurricane ridge along with abundant sunshine.

Observations for Hurricane Ridge area

Recent deep snow conditions took a dramatic turn for the worse Monday in the near and below tree line zones as rain returned and fell through Monday night.  The generally light to moderate rain that fell through late Monday night has quickly changed the recent low density dry snow to wet snow conditions.  An NPS ranger at Hurricane Ridge Tuesday morning reported evidence of recent widespread wet snow avalanches running on most steeper slopes and a variety of aspects.  

Several avalanche cycles have occurred over the last 2 weeks. The last natural cycle likely occurred during the middle of last week when the road to Hurricane Ridge was closed. NPS employees found avalanche debris up to 8' deep just off the Hurricane Ridge road at 3600 ft while plowing Thursday. The start zone was likely in the near-treeline zone on a S-SE aspect. 

The late January crust layer and associated weak layers of early February are now deeply buried by all the new storm snow, but still producing areas of collapsing and large whumpfing as reported in a NE meadow below treeline by a frequent TAY-er in the Hurricane Ridge area this weekend. The same skier had pictures of some very large cornice collapses.

On Sunday Feb 23, NWAC observer Katy Reid found relatively stable profile of right side up storm snow, meaning lower density surface snow accumulating on denser older snow layers with little avalanche activity through the day.  However some warming in the afternoon did cause some surface cohesion producing some shooting cracks from skies as shallow soft slabs formed.  On Friday stubborn but still possible to ski trigger wind slab were found on northerly aspects above treeline. She also observed quickly releasing wet loose avalanches on below treeline on solar aspects reacting to the strengthening February sunshine. With the addition of Monday's rain and Tuesday's sun and warming these loose-wet slides should grow in number.  

Shallow soft slab cracking due to afternoon warming.  D2 loose-dry slide.  Sunday 2/23 Maggies, Hurricane Ridge by Katy Reid.

The mid and base pack at Hurricane should still consist of mostly stable crusts and melt form layers from periods of warm weather earlier this winter.