Direct solar radiation is not forecast, but should it occur, the avalanche danger will increase rapidly at all elevations.
Weather Forecast
Cloudy skies, strong NW winds and mild temperatures with freezing levels around 1400m on Thursday. No precipitation during the day but maybe up to 8 cm overnight Thursday.
Snowpack Summary
Snowpack remains thin and facetted at lower elevations, but is supportive above tree line. Last week's storm snow has buried a surface hoar layer (Jan6) down approx 30cm. Windslabs have formed on Southwesterly alpine aspects and previous significant snow transport by intense winds.
Avalanche Summary
Basal facet avalanches (both slab and loose) have been observed below treeline today. Yesterday, numerous size 2 and a few size 3 natural soft and hard slab avalanches were observed in the alpine. Many of these slides are stepping to ground and running to valley bottom.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.