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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2012–Dec 15th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Moderate danger rating specifies human triggered avalanches remain possible. Now is not the time to jump into big lines.

Weather Forecast

Next few days will be mainly dry, seasonal temperatures, light winds, and very light flurries.

Snowpack Summary

There is great variation in depth and location of the wind slabs. They continue to build and harden from gusting moderate to strong SW winds. These slabs appear to have bonded well.  In windswept areas in the alpine and at tree line, the November rain crust has been exposed along with dirt and rocks.  Cornices are well developed.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed or reported since the end the cycle that ended on Monday.  In that cycle, slab avalanches to size 3 were observed on NE aspects at alpine and tree line elevations, several stepped down to the basal facet layer.  Large cornice failure triggered large avalanches on the basal facet layer as well.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.