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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2016–Feb 13th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

Cooler temperatures are helping to stabilize what was a spring like week. Careful snowpack evaluation remains key.

Weather Forecast

Through the weekend, freezing level will hover around 1300m. Expect -3 to -12, light SW winds, 5cm new snow Friday night followed by light flurries. Maybe more snow on Sunday night and more on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Temperatures are cooling helping to stabilize the snowpack from previous 3 days of warm temperatures. Slabs will persist at tree-line and above on North-Easterly aspects below ridge crests and cross-loaded terrain. The mid-pack is facetted, new snow interface is a concern along with a decomposed surface hoar down 40cm.

Avalanche Summary

No field patrol today but we suspect less natural activity today with cooler temperatures. Monday-Thursday's warm temperatures and sun induced afternoon natural avalanche creating numerous loose wet to sz 2 at lower elevations and some size 3 slabs in the alpine.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.