Hazard may change dependent on the amount of new snow. More snow than forecast may push the hazard rating higher than the forecast.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: The ridge of high pressure is being forced out of the region by a series of Pacific lows. A strong zonal flow should deliver good amounts of precipitation for the powder hounds.Monday Night: Wind: Light SW | Strong/Extreme W/SW at ridgetop.Tuesday: Freezing Level: 800m; Precip: 5/10 cm Wind: Light/Mod SW | Strong W/SW at ridgetop.Wednesday: Freezing Level: 1100m; Precip: 15/20 cm Wind: Moderate SW | Strong/Extreme SW at ridgetop.Thursday: Freezing level: 800m Precip: 15/20 cm Wind: S | Mod.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche activity over the last four days has been limited to surface sluffing resulting in loose snow avalanches to size 1 in steep terrain. We expect his to change significantly with forecast precipitation, temps and winds.
Snowpack Summary
Amounts of snow in the coming days along with forecast wind will change the snowpack that we now have. A small front came through the region on January 29th leaving around 10 cm of snow in it's wake. Outflow winds (out of the N/NW) have formed small wind slabs in wind exposed terrain at and above treeline. Well settled faceted snow and surface hoar can be found on the surface in wind protected features. Just below the surface a weak layer exists that consists of large surface hoar (widespread in most sheltered and shaded areas at all elevations), a sun crust on south facing slopes, faceted grains (in colder areas or areas with a thinner snowpack), or a combination of the above. This variable weak layer is expected to become a significant problem this week as snow makes it's return to the province. The rest of the upper and mid-snowpack are generally well consolidated. A facet/crust weakness near the bottom of the snowpack has gone dormant for now but may rear it's ugly head again in the future. The depth of this layer makes triggering an avalanche unlikely but the consequences would be very serious.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.