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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2013–Mar 24th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Cornices are large so give them a wide berth. Sun has the potential to increase the afternoon avalanche danger at all elevations particularly on S aspects, sun affected bowls, and gullies. Human triggered avalanches remain possible in isolated areas. 

Weather Forecast

Strong diurnal temperature fluctuations will continue to occur. Sunday should stay relatively cool, sun with afternoon clouds, and light N winds. Freezing level should reach 1000m by the afternoon. Monday through Wednesday should be clear skies with a solid freeze occurring at night. Freezing levels are rising to 1600m by late afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

A variable thick slab exists in alpine and treeline locations on a variety of aspects. It is over a strong midpack except in shallow locations where you could trigger basal facets or depth hoar weakness at the ground. At treeline in south facing terrain, their is a suncrust 80 cm deep. Strong diurnal temperature fluctuations have helped stability. 

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new noted on Saturday's Icefield's patrol with good visibility. A size 3 was observed Friday off Indian ridge main peak up Whistler creek. It scrubbed to ground and ran far. Thursday in Shangrila a size 3 occurred. It was triggered by cornice fall in the afternoon heat, scrubbed to ground, 2m crown, and ran full path.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.