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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 9th, 2017–Dec 10th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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The snowpack is strong and well consolidated after a week of mild dry weather. Watch for wet surface snow conditions on some steep sun exposed slopes, especially below rocks or cliffs and above terrain traps where even small slides could be dangerous. Many areas have a very shallow snowpack below treeline making travel difficult.

Detailed Forecast

More of the same weather is expected for Sunday, mostly sunny and warm with light winds. 

In areas away from the lower elevation passes, many NWAC weather stations have seen temperatures reaching the low 50's Saturday and similar conditions are expected Sunday.

Surface melt-freeze crusts should form overnight on solar exposed slopes and gradually melt through the day. Loose wet avalanches should be less likely Sunday and mainly confined to steep sun exposed slopes below rocks or trees absorbing abundant radiation. Watch for terrain such as this if the surface snow is melting more than a few inches. 

Older wind slabs should have mostly settled and stabilized and will be removed from the avalanche problem list, but continue to look out for areas of wind stiffened snow deposited mainly near ridges on steep shaded terrain.

Early season terrain hazards still exist, such as poorly covered rocks, vegetation and creeks, particularly at lower elevations.

Snowpack Discussion

High pressure has now been over the region for a full week. Sunshine and very mild temperatures have been the story at mid and higher elevations with cool to cold temperatures at lower elevations. This weather has allowed for overall strengthening and consolidation of an already strong snowpack.

Some small loose wet slides have occurred on mainly steep sun exposed slopes through the week, but have become less frequent over the past few days.

At the beginning of the high pressure earlier this week, some areas experienced strong easterly crest level wind, transporting loose snow and building some wind slab layers mainly near or above treeline. No triggered wind slabs have been reported recently as these layers continue to settle and bond under warm temperatures. Older wind slabs may still persist, mainly near and above treeline on mostly westerly to northerly facing terrain, especially below ridges. These slabs should be more reluctant to trigger as they continue to bond and strengthen. 

The surface snow consists mainly of surface melt freeze crusts forming overnight on solar aspects. On shaded aspects, settled storm snow is still providing some nice skiing and riding conditions.  

The total snowpack height in these zones varies mostly from 3-5 feet, with the most in the north zone nearer the crest.

The snowpack is well consolidated and strong with settled old storm snow of about 1-2 feet bonded well to the strong Thanksgiving rain crust. 

During this high pressure pattern, surface hoar and or surface facets have been formed, and grown quite large in some areas, especially the typical sun and wind sheltered terrain at lower elevations in the cooler temperatures below the inversion. We will need to watch for these potential weak surface snow conditions as they may have an impact on future avalanche conditions when snowfall returns. 

Observations

North

A party of NCMG guides, training in the Washington Pass area on Thursday and noted the temperature inversion at the Pass, good bonds to the Thanksgiving crust, some small loose wet activity on solar slopes, with little avalanche concerns below treeline.

Central

On Wednesday a party in the Gallagher/Hawkins area reported nice conditions on shaded terrain up to 6700 feet, with only a few small wet snow avalanches on steep solar aspects.

South

No recent observations.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.