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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 30th, 2017–Dec 1st, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

The snowpack remains highly variable with few reports from the region. Reactive wind slabs may exist at upper elevations and new snow amounts may be higher than forecast. Use a conservative approach to terrain selection.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Friday: Mainly cloudy with new snow amounts 2-7 cm. Strong ridgetop winds from the West. Alpine temperatures near -10 and freezing levels near 1000 m. Saturday: Cloudy with new snow amounts 5-15 cm. Moderate ridgetop winds from the South West. Alpine temperatures near -8 and freezing levels 1000 m.Sunday: Cloudy with new snow amounts 3-10 cm. Light ridgetop winds from the North West.Local enhancements are possible with new snow amounts. Visit the Mountain Weather Forecast for a detailed weather report.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche observations have been reported. As wind continues to redistribute the new snow, expect to find wind slabs building in lee areas above 1600 m. In the high alpine, winds have scoured southwest facing slopes, loading northerly aspects. Watch for pillowy snow and signs of instability like hollow, drum-like sounds or shooting cracks. Many areas below treeline are below threshold depths for avalanches. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

At upper elevations20-40 cm of snow has fallen on the crust that formed after last week's rain and warming. At this point, Im not sure if the recent snow is bonding to the buried crust. Ridgetop winds are likely redistributing the new snow above 1600 m, possibly forming wind slabs on leeward slopes and terrain features. Reports from the area indicate that the buried crust is supportive, up to 10 cm thick and extends to mountain top elevations on all aspects. The average snowpack depth at treeline elevation is 60-80 cm and may not have reached threshold in most places. A deeper snowpack exists at upper elevations. The snowpack remains highly variable in regards to aspect and elevation.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.