Sea to Sky Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 14th, 2021 4:00PM

Thu Apr 15th Current Conditions
Alpine Considerable Treeline Considerable Below Treeline Considerable
Fri Apr 16th 2 Day Outlook
Alpine Considerable Treeline Considerable Below Treeline Considerable
Sat Apr 17th 3 Day Outlook
Alpine Considerable Treeline Considerable Below Treeline Considerable

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet and Cornices.

Another day of sun and heat means another day of increasing hazard throughout the day. Avoid exposure to sun exposed slopes and cornices, especially in the afternoon.

Check out the latest Forecaster's Blog for more information on managing current conditions.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure, with sunny skies and high freezing levels will dominate the weather pattern this week.

Wednesday night - Mainly clear / light to moderate northeast wind / alpine low temperature near 2 / freezing level 2700 m

Thursday - Sunny / light northeast wind / alpine high temperature near 4 / freezing level 3000 m 

Friday - Mainly sunny / light southeast wind / alpine high temperature near 4 / freezing level 3200 m 

Saturday - Mainly sunny / light southwest wind / alpine high temperature near 5 / freezing level 3300 m

Avalanche Summary

There have been several size 1-2 natural and human triggered storm and wind slab avalanches reported over the past week. These were mainly on northerly aspects in the alpine and at treeline. 

There have been several solar triggered wet loose avalanches reported in recent days, up to size 2.5. There have also been a number of cornice failures reported over the past week.

Looking forward, wet loose avalanches are expected to continue with sun and warm temperatures. The likelihood of cornice failure also increases with warming. Wind slabs may still be possible to trigger at upper elevations. 

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface is a crust in most areas, except on north aspects above about 1500 m, where both soft snow and wind slabs may exist. In areas where the surface is a crust, sunshine and rising freezing levels are expected to soften the crust during the day.

Cornices are large and looming along ridgelines. Their release is unpredictable, requiring a large berth if you're travelling above or below them. Sun and warm temperatures will increase the chances of cornice releases.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Avoid exposure to sunny slopes, especially in the afternoon.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Surface snow will lose cohesion and become unstable with sunshine and rising freezing levels during the day. 

Aspects:

East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations:

All elevations.

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices

Likelihood

Possible-Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Cornices are large and looming along many ridgelines. They become increasingly unstable during periods of warming.

Aspects:

North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations:

Alpine.

Valid until: Apr 15th, 2021 4:00PM

Forecast Trend

The latest forecast danger ratings, broken down to elevation. See how an elevation is trending.