Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Expect to find wind drifts in upper elevation and alpine terrain—some of these may remain sensitive to your weight. These will be most common along higher ridgelines but look for them lower in cirques and below large cliff faces. In the past week, slab avalanches of the newest snowfall breaking 1-3 feet deep have occurred.  Exercise caution around and under large cornices, as a failure could trigger a very large avalanche breaking on deeply buried weak layers.  With any weather change—like new snowfall or increasing temperature—be prepared to scale back your terrain choices.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs with depths up to 2 feet are still lingering in steep, wind-loaded terrain at the upper elevations. The 12-17 inches of new snow that fell over the past week was blown into drifts and slabs in upper elevation and alpine terrain. These wind drifts will be larger and more widespread as you climb in elevation, where more snow fell in the recent storm. Look for drifted and pillowed areas below ridgelines, cliff bands, and mid-slope features such as ribs, gullies, and breakovers. Surface texture and denser/stiffer snow are tell-tale signs of a loaded slope. While it is trending less likely that these wind slabs would be large enough to bury you, they could still be dangerous in consequential terrain.

    Cornice Fall: Give all cornices a wide margin and be careful along ridgelines as they can break further back than expected. Limit exposure under or adjacent to them. Cornice fall is currently the most likely way to trigger a very large persistent slab avalanche. 

    Recent avalanche activity in the upper elevations of the Tetons.

     

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Hard slabs 3-5 feet thick overlay weak snow that formed earlier in the season. Shallow, rocky, & unsupported terrain on the north half of the compass is the terrain most likely to harbor this problem. Thin spots in the snowpack are more likely to act as trigger points and are most common in these locations. While it has become unlikely for a human to trigger one of these slabs, larger triggers such as cornice fall or smaller initiated avalanches still have the potential to impact weak layers buried deeply in the snowpack. Extra caution is advised in terrain where problems #1 and #2 overlap.

    Numerous avalanches occurred during the most recent storm cycle that failed on these weak layers. Many were likely triggered by cornice fall(Treasure Mountain). 

    (3/6/2024) Crown of a very large (D3) avalanche in the South Fork Teton Canyon. This slide was triggered by a cornice fall on the right side of the photo. The avalanche occurred in steep, rocky NE-facing terrain at 9400' and ran 2400' to the valley floor and broke many mature trees.

    Photo: Cameron Galt

Avalanche Discussion

The recent deaths of two avalanche professionals (one from an avalanche, one not) have me thinking a lot about risk. Mountain professionals and recreationists alike have been stepping into more consequential terrain as conditions have lent themselves to doing just that. Risk is fun; taking well-calculated risk keeps life interesting and encourages individual growth, but it doesn't mean we can't get sucker-punched by bad luck. I get that there's risk in many things, like driving. But when I drift a little too close into another lane while trying to drink my coffee, another human in the other lane usually corrects me by moving themselves, or via a honk or gesture. The mountains do not adapt to us; typically, we don't get much feedback until something goes very wrong. Every day we venture out, we still need to ask ourselves: what could go wrong? How bad could it be? And what are we going to do about it? This is risk management. Continue to assess your options, and when in doubt, build a wide buffer around any uncertainty you may have, like: Is that overhanging cornice just a bit too close for comfort? Is my partner unsure of their gear or themselves in terrain that does not lend itself to an arrestable fall? As my friend Dave Zinn from our neighbors to the north (GNFAC) would say, when existing on the far edges of a probability, threading many needles, our luck will run out quicker. 

   

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