Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could trigger avalanches in lingering pockets of wind-drifted snow at upper elevations. Avoid steep slopes below corniced ridges or deep pillow-like drifts. As temperatures increase throughout the day, wet avalanches will become more likely. Move to lower-angle terrain if the snow becomes wet and heavy.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Over the past few days, winds formed pockets of unstable wind drifted snow where you could trigger an avalanche. You may find that these wind slabs are still reactive in some locations. Slopes below ridgelines and the base of cliffs are likely spots for wind slabs to form. Look for textured surfaces or stiff, hollow-sounding snow to identify wind slab locations. You can also use quick hand pits, your probe, or poles to feel for stiffer snow over softer snow. If you see shooting cracks in wind-stiffened snow, this is a sign to choose low-angle terrain. We expect most of these avalanches to be small but use caution in high-consequence terrain where a fall could have unfortunate outcomes. Cornice falls are common this time of year and are a hazard on their own, but they can also trigger slab avalanches on the slopes below. Don't linger for long beneath these monsters.

    (3/28/2024)

    Mission Ridge Ski Patrol was able to easily trigger these wind slabs with ski cuts on Thursday 3/28.

    Photo: Mission Ridge Ski Patrol

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Freezing levels are on an upward trend and will creep close to 5000ft on Friday. The warm weather, sun breaks, and the potential for showers mean wet loose avalanches are possible in steep terrain. These avalanches are relatively predictable but can carry a lot of force, and they may become easy to trigger by the afternoon or run naturally. If the snow feels like wet mashed potatoes, it might be time to move to lower-angle terrain. The snowpack at lower elevations has been through several melt-freeze cycles and is mostly well consolidated. However, you could still see blocks of snow shed off steep rocks and cliffs, so pay attention to the type of terrain overhead as you travel. 

    (3/26/2024)

    Rollerballs are one of the first signs that wet loose avalanches are becoming more likely.

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Springtime brings dynamic weather to the mountains, and afternoon warming can produce locally heavy bursts of precipitation. Travel with an assessment mindset, make frequent observations, and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and snow stability. 

On Tuesday, I found some isolated areas with weak faceted snow over a melt-freeze crust near Blewett Pass. We don't expect this to be a widespread problem, but checking the bond with the old snow surface as you travel is always a good idea. If you find the new snow slides easily, avalanches are more likely.

Most elevations have multiple crusts in the upper snowpack from the recent spring-like weather from last week. On some high-elevation northern aspects, there is still weaker snow over the Early February Crust. However, this layer is gaining strength, stability test results are inconsistent, and it has had little avalanche activity since the warm-up. This combination of factors makes us reasonably confident that avalanches on this persistent weak layer are unlikely. However, there is always lingering uncertainty with these tricky, persistent weak layers, so step into large, north-facing alpine terrain with this in mind. A big warm-up or powerful storm could also bring this problem back to life. 

Lower elevations are melting out quickly, and you may experience challenging travel conditions below 4000ft, particularly on southern slopes. 

Observations have been sparse. Help create a more accurate forecast by submitting your public observations here. 

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