Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in terrain above treeline. A new round of fresh snow and strong winds will further the development of large wind slabs at upper elevations and exposed slopes. Natural avalanches are possible, and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Approach avalanche terrain with caution, while performing careful snowpack observation, and conservative decision-making. Hightened avalanche danger exists on all other aspects and elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    Today, as the next round of snow begins to fall, westerly winds will strengthen across the forecast area, reaching extreme levels above treeline. The recent cold temperatures have preserved the dry, low-density snow, allowing for easier wind transport and accumulation. With 30–40 inches of new snow since Thursday, there is potential for large to very large wind slabs on leeward (SE-E-NE-N) slopes. Cross loading is possible on northwest aspects. Blowing snow and cracking or collapsing in drifted snow are clear warning signs of the problem.  Wind Slabs can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas. To limit your exposure to wind slab problems, cautious route-finding, and careful slope evaluation will be necessary. Learn more about wind slab avalanches HERE.

    Storm slab avalanches still remain as a remote possibility. The new snow has settled and consolidated immensely over the last 3 days, gradually providing increased stability. However, there is still a risk of triggering a harmful avalanche on steep slopes. If triggered, the slab will likely fail in the top 10 inches, where the new snow is exceptionally dry and unconsolidated. This problem can be found anywhere the new snow has fallen. Avoid this instability by staying off of slopes greater than 30 degrees. Learn more about storm slab avalanches HERE.

    (1/7/2024)

    Wind Slab

    Photo: Cory Beattie

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The low-density, dry, condition of the recent 2–3 feet of snow will present the opportunity for dry-loose avalanches. Though they are often not very hazardous, these avalanches can entrain a fair amount of snow, taking you off of your feet. Expect to find these avalanches in steep to very steep terrain. Manage your exposure by performing ski cuts, using safe zones, and skiing in less consequential terrain. Learn more about dry loose avalanches HERE.

    Credit: Univ of British Columbia

    Example of dry loose avalanches

Avalanche Discussion

A NWS Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 4pm Tuesday. A new system has begun impacting the Mount Shasta area, bringing with it 8–14 inches of new snow for treeline areas, and elevated winds into the strong-extreme category. 

Yesterday's observations from Gray Butte found 35–40 inches of new snow since Thursday (2/29). The snowpack presented right side up, with the top 8–10 inches being exceptionally dry and loose, and the lower 20–30 inches being more dense and consolidated. Storm slab instabilities appeared to be decreasing, with observed weaknesses existing along density within the new snow. These weaknesses showed poor propagation, and resistance to trigger.

Weather station current snow depths (in inches):Old Ski Bowl: 171Castle Lake: 117Mt. Eddy: 138Callahan: 89Sand Flat: 114

The Everitt Memorial Highway and Castle Lake roads remain closed. The timeframe for opening it still unknown.  Alternative access points include McBride Springs, the Nordic Center, Mount Shasta Ski Park, and Pilgrim and Deer Mountain OSV parks. You can ride a snow machine from FSR 31 road (Old McCloud) up to Old Ski Bowl. Please stay in boundaries. Here's a map of the riding boundaries for the Southside of Mount Shasta.

Regions covered