Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There is a MODERATE danger on steep slopes that face W-N-E-SE where slabs of previously drifted snow overlay a buried persistent weak layer. People can trigger avalanches up to a foot deep or more in these areas. In Alpine terrain, there is a low-likelihood high-consequence scenario of triggering full-depth avalanches failing on a weak layer of facets near the ground. To reduce exposure, avoid steep convexities, shallow slope margins, and rocky, radical terrain.

Most other terrain has LOW danger. Small avalanches involving thin slabs of wind-drifted snow may be possible on isolated terrain features.

Many slopes have thin cover and rocks, stumps, and logs are lurking just beneath the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    A persistent weak layer of faceted snow that formed during the December dry spell is our primary avalanche concern. This layer can be found about a foot below the surface on slopes facing W-N-E-SE. Near and above treeline, slabs of wind drifted snow have formed over top of this weak layer and this is where you are most likely to find trouble. Above treeline, however, northerly winds have created an erratic distribution of over-riding slabs, stripping and eroding snow off of many north and east aspects that are usually loaded. Cross-loading, however, is still a factor. This means you can be traveling through terrain that looks scoured and benign, and then suddenly find yourself on top of a hard slab with facets underneath. Suspect this scenario when the texture changes from rough and thin, to smooth, hard, and fat. Be alert to likely deposition zones such as gullies, depressions, and the leeward sides of terrain features. In these same areas, an outside chance lingers for avalanches to fail on weak facets near the ground. Avoiding extreme, rocky, slopes with a thin snowpack is the best way to mitigate this problem.

    The profile below is from Colorado Bowl on Monday. Notice the very weak snow in the top of the pack. No slab is present in this profile, but on many slopes near treeline and above, slabs have formed on top of this very weak surface snow causing elevated avalanche conditions.

Special Announcement

Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy. AWD with good tires required.

Grooming Conditions: Trails have not been groomed since Friday.

The Beacon Park is up and running. High pressure is a great time to work on your beacon skills.

Recent Activity

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 60" Depth at Gold Basin: 29"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NNW 4-7 Temp: 1° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 93%

Weather

This morning, it is a chilly 1° F in Gold Basin. Overnight winds were light out of the Northwest. Northerly flow will continue to keep temperatures cold today. Daytime highs will climb up to 17° F. Winds will blow from the North at 5 MPH. Overnight lows will once again drop to the single digits. We will see a gradual warming trend and sunny skies through Friday.

General Conditions

The snow surface is generally wrecked around the compass from last week’s strong North wind event. The two inches of snow that fell on Saturday at least gave us a fresh coat of white paint, but did little to improve the skiing conditions. I toured around Colorado Bowl yesterday and found the exposed upper pitches to be alternately wind-scoured and loaded. I did manage to find some soft turns on the lower slopes, but it was low-angle and short lived. If you are hunting for powder, low-angle, sheltered, northerly aspects are your best bet. The soft snow is out there – keep searching. Solar aspects are still quite thin and variable, some have better coverage than others.

We are still dealing with a persistent weak layer problem involving slabs of previously drifted snow that exist over top of weak faceted layers. A weak layer exists about a foot beneath the surface and is easy to locate with your shovel. You’ll want to avoid steep slopes if you find a slab above this layer.

Our beacon park is up and running! Take advantage of this great resource to brush up on your beacon skills.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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