Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Early Morning Update: With  continued heavy snowfall and early morning reports of sensitive slabs, expect to find dangerous avalanche conditions near and above treeline. Expect to experience widespread cracking and collapsing and the possibility of natural avalanches. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche is likely. 

New snow and wind is forming soft slabs that rest on top of very weak and faceted snowpack. You can trigger a storm slab avalanche or more likely a persistent slab avalanche that fails on depth hoar or facets in the upper portions of the snowpack that formed during the November - January dry period. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or loud audible collapses, as these are indications you've found this strong over weak snowpack structure.  Any avalanche triggered could grow in size if it steps down into depth hoar layers deeper in the snowpack, taking with it most of the seasons' snowpack. 

Avoid being underneath steep slopes above, as it's possible to remotely trigger avalanches that break well above you. If we continue to see heavy snowfall expect 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow continues to fall on a weak shallow faceted/depth hoar snowpack. These widespread persistent weak layers formed from the Nov thru Jan dry period. This will be the first test of the season of these weak layers and there's a bit of uncertainty as to how much weight they'll be able to handle. 

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible whumpfs as these are indications you've found a slab/weak layer combination. If you notice snow stiffening under foot or these bulls-eye clues of unstable snow, seek terrain under 30 degrees, avoiding being on or connected to slopes above you. The current set-up we have, lends itself to remotely triggering of avalanches. This could mean you're able to trigger an avalanche breaking well above you.  

    Avalanches will most likely fail at the upper parts of the faceted snow but could step down, or gouge into depth hoar near the ground, taking with it most of the seasons' snowpack. Any avalanche triggered would lead to a nasty ride and could be big enough to injure or bury you.  

    A shallow weak faceted snowpack will struggle to handle new snow. Persistent slab avalanches are likely to initially fail on the upper portions of the weak and could step down or gouge into the weak snow below.

    (1/28/2025) Photo: Charlie Harrison

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Close to a foot of snow has fallen with a couple more inches of snow forecasted throughout the day. New snow was falling on near surface facets that formed during the dry cold period prior to this storm. Watch for subtle stiffening of the snow underfoot, snow being transported from wind and cracking on the surface. These storm slabs will mainly be found at upper elevations, just below ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features where light to moderate SW winds have formed soft slabs. Although it's possible to trigger a storm slab avalanche that fails at the old snow interface, expect these shallower avalanches to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. 

    On steep northerly facing slopes where you're not finding a stiffer more cohesive slab, it's possible to start a loose dry snow avalanche in the new snow that can step down into the faceted/depth hoar snow below.  Before this storm, these facet sluffs were small, but could be enough snow to push or knock you around. 

Avalanche Discussion

Snow started around 3PM and came in quickly with intense 1 to 2 inch an hour snowfall rates. Snow totals as of this morning are around 11" with 0.5" of SWE.Snowfall is expected to continue today into the afternoon as we remain under a Winter Storm Warning.  We could pick an additional 2-4 inches of snow as we see NW winds help drive some orographic snow over our mountains.  Ridgeline wind speeds were not a strong as forecasted, mainly in the teens with gusts in the 20's out of the SW.  Winds this morning are expected to shift to the NW and continue to be in the 10 - 20 mph range.  

If you haven't been checking out the forecasts this season, it's pretty easy to catch up. Two big storms at the end of October and early November have brought most of our snow so far this season. Since November 8th we've only picked up 13 inches of low-density snow. This very long, extended dry period in our shallow snowpack has promoted advanced faceting and depth hoar. It's been a lot of depth hoar skiing this year and hoping you don't hit any rocks or logs on the ground. A 2 to 3 foot snowpack can be found above 10,500' on mainly Northerly through East aspects, with typical West facing slopes along the Fraiser to Wheeler ridgeline holding snow as well. Southerly aspects have melted back to bare ground. These persistent weak layers are incredibly weak, widespread and haven't faced a significant snow event this year.   

 

There's a bit of uncertainty as to how much of a slab formed from the low-density new snow, as winds were only in the teens last night. These surface slabs and added weight are going to be driving the persistent slab avalanche problem. Before the storm, our snowpack had widespread weak layers, but mainly lacked slabs able to drive propagation for a slab avalanche. This is why most extended column tests were not producing results. However, on the few slopes prior to this storm where we were finding a slab, it wasn't taking much force to get weak layers to fail. 0.5 inches of SWE was not the 1 inch of water that was forecasted to likely tip the scales for natural avalanches, but our weak layers are incredibly weak and fragile right now in the upper bits of the snowpack.  It's still snowing early this morning and we'll see how much this storm produces when it finally makes its exit later this afternoon.    

Winds look to crank up on Friday night into the weekend, so we should see more slab development and continued loading of slopes into the weekend.  

If you are getting out to check out the fresh powder, go in with a conservative early season mindset. I held off on rising the avalanche danger as winds weren't as strong as forecasted, and we only picked up half of the SWE that was expected but conditions could change quickly and rise to CONSIDERABLE if we do see winds pick up or continue to get more snow than forecasted.  The current snowpack is incredibly weak from the close to 3 months of dry weather. This is the first "semi-significant" test these weak layers have faced, and it's hard to gauge how they will react to a bit of loading. It's still very much a shallow snowpack with lots of rocks and ground hazards still present.    

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