Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A quick hit of weather with soft snow on the surface makes small avalanches possible where wind drifts the snow into a deeper slab. You are most likely to find instability on steep and unsupported terrain at the upper elevations close to a ridgeline.  If you see blowing snow or rounded dunes, steer clear of steep and consequential slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    2-4" of new snow with moderate winds could build new slabs overnight. In general, the higher you go and the more exposed you are, the higher the chances of finding instability. With modest wind and low precipitation totals, we don't expect a significant loading event in most parts of the zone on Thursday. Any avalanches should be small in size. The volcanoes will be the outlier and you should expect more snow and higher danger if you are headed that way. 

    To manage the hazard on Thursday, track slab depth with a pole or your probe and back off if you find deeper snow or drifts. Jump on some safe and representative test slopes and use tools like up-track tests and hand pits to assess slab presence and behavior. If you see blowing snow, cracking, or fresh avalanches, you've got obvious clues telling you to make a more conservative plan, but you may not see these on Thursday. The safest approach is to steer clear of steep, consequential, and sustained start zones near ridge lines. If it looks like a double black at the resort, that certainly fits the definition. That leaves a lot of fun riding to be had away from wind-loaded slopes. If you opt for steeper terrain, carefully consider the consequences of getting knocked off your feet, and only expose one person at a time to the slope.

    (1/1/2025) An example of wind slabs triggered in steep, consequential, and sustained start zones. Even a small slide here would pack a punch.

     Photo: Ryan Stoddard

Avalanche Discussion

It feels like a bit of a rinse and repeat for the West South heading into Thursday, with a brief pulse of precipitation and modest winds increasing overnight. We should eek out a bit more snow from this system than we did the one prior, though the bar was set pretty low. Once again, the volcanoes will wring out a little more snow than other parts of the zone, and at St. Helens it may come with a warming trend which could increase the reactivity. One caveat on Thursday is with system timing. The pulse overnight abates in the morning ahead of another round landing in the afternoon, mainly after dark. That system has a bit more precipitation with it, and if it comes in earlier or harder than expected, we could see an uptick in danger before dark.

We haven't got much for new observations from the West South, so we aren't able to definitively say whether the weak surfaces noted on Wednesday survived the wind. One report suggested surface hoar had blown down last night, but we will want to hear from more locations throughout the zone before it completely goes off our radar. Riding conditions are still quite good, and reports continue to trickle in of a generally non-reactive and right-side up snowpack. With widespread 4F snow still on the surface outside of wind-exposed slopes, there is still snow available for transport, though to move it we will likely need to see higher wind speeds than we have seen in the past few days. 

Expect an uptick in danger for Friday and then through the weekend ahead of some more impactful storm systems. If you make it out on Thursday, please submit an observation and let us know what you see!

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