Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Several persistent weak layers continue to pose moderate avalanche danger near and above the treeline.  Although triggering an avalanche is unlikely, if triggered, expect the avalanche to propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways, making this a low-likelihood, high-consequence problem. Localized terrain features where the snowpack is thinner are the most likely points to trigger these avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The weak layers and basal facets in or near the bottom of the snowpack are still present; in some areas, they are starting to round, and in other, more northerly aspects, they continue to grow. This basal weak layer caused some of the larger slides in the avalanche cycle more than a week ago and stability tests continue to fail on this layer (Click here).  In some locations, such as catchment zones and areas minimally disturbed by wind, this problem could be categorized as a deep persistent slab.  In other locations, such as wind-effected chutes and gullies, this layer is within a meter of the snow surface and could be triggered by a single rider or skier.  Although unlikely to be triggered, these avalanches could be large and easily bury a skier or rider. Loaded starting zones and their margins, where the snowpack is thinner, are the most likely spots to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche.  

    (2/19/2024)

    Telescope path went to ground around Feb. 9th 

    Photo: Troy Marino

Avalanche Discussion

Most stability tests and observations show that the snowpack has become increasingly stable and that, overall, the avalanche hazard has decreased.  However, even after two weeks since our last significant snowfall, we are not yet at low danger levels on all aspects and elevations, with snowpit profiles continuing to show signs of instability.  Slab softening via warming from spring-like weather may increase the possibility of persistent slab avalanches on slopes that have maintained reactive basal facets and melt-freeze crusts. Thus, we continue to face a low probability but high consequence scenario.

In addition,  with the warming weather this weekend, backcountry travelers should watch for the possibility of very small wet loose avalanches on slopes that receive large amounts of solar radiation. Although these are likely to be small and isolated, they could increase the avalanche hazard in zones with extreme terrain in the runout and terrain traps. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under steep, sunny slopes in the afternoon. Monitor the snowpack surface and move to colder, shadier slopes once the slush layers become more than ~6" deep. 

Avalanches from our last large storm cycle are still being reported. To learn more about the size and type of these avalanches, click here. 

For recent observations, click here.  

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