Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist near and above treeline, where increasing winds will drift snow in thicker and stiffer slabs.  You can trigger an avalanche within the most recent storm that could break 2 to 3 feet deep.  These avalanches could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  Faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground continue to remain concerning where the snowpack was shallow before this latest storm.  These persistent slab avalanches could fail on or near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Conservative decision-making and cautious route-finding are essential today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    20 to 30 mph winds out of the SW today will easily drift snow into stiffer more cohesive slabs.  3 feet of snow fell over the Feb 2-3 storm.  These new snow slabs continue to remain reactive near and above treeline, either failing within the storm snow on a density change or graupel layer or at the old snow interface that consisted of near-surface facets, crusts, and slick hard slabs at upper elevations. Slab development was less pronounced below treeline, but may be a concern on open exposed northerly terrain. Avoid slopes where you find obvious wind drifted pillows or slopes that are actively loading. 

    Pay attention to signs of instability like shooting cracks off your boards.   Wind slab avalanches will be dangerous on their own, but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Close to  3" of snow water equivalent (SWE) along with 3 feet of snow have fallen with this storm and rapidly loaded slopes, stressing deeper buried weak layers.  With each loading event this season, we've seen these weak layers become more reactive and producing natural avalanches.  Near and below treeline had the shallowest snowpack before this storm and remain the most concerning for impacting these weak layers. 

    These avalanches would be large, potentially breaking 3 to 6 feet deep, and most likely would not be survivable.  Avalanches can be remotely triggered and break well above you and able to run long distances well into the flats.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes to slopes over 30 degrees. 

    On this east aspect at 11,300' we had a faceted crust from the end of January warm up and the beginning of January drought layer.  These layers and depth hoar on the ground on some slopes continue to remain our persistent weak layers in the snowpack. 

    (2/4/2024) Photo: Taos Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

An impressive storm over Feb 2 - 3 brought 30 to 36 inches of snow and about 2.5 to 3" of snow water equivalent (SWE). During the storm, winds were mainly 10 - 20 mph out of the west. This storm came in right side up, with dense heavier snow at the beginning and lower-density snow as it made its exit. Today will bring increasing clouds and winds ahead of the next atmospheric river, which pushes into our area tonight with another round of significant snow forecasted for Wednesday along with strong winds. 

Avalanche conditions are slowly easing as we push further away from the storm as natural avalanche activity has mostly subsided. In travels, we were able to observe some of the extent of the natural avalanche cycle that happened over the last couple of days. Many avalanches appeared to have run early in the storm and had been mostly filled back from snow.  Several avalanches had run near the end of the storm on Saturday with some stepping down into deeper persistent weak layers.  Most of the avalanches were on east aspects near and above treeline, but we did observe some avalanches on north, west and southeast aspects as well.  Yesterday we had a large collapse and whumpf on a northerly aspect below treeline. This below treeline terrain continues to remain weak and faceted with still a relatively shallow snowpack.    

Prior to this storm, the snowpack on many slopes below and near treeline was shallow with two distinct weak layers in the snowpack. Depth hoar near the ground and an early January facet layer got buried beneath slabs from the mid-January storms. These weak layers produced several large avalanches during these storms and continued to remain reactive in stability tests leading up to this storm. This latest round of snow has nearly doubled our snowpack and added a significant amount of weight quickly, which these weak layers are slowly adjusting to. 

 

Attention is going to quickly turn to the next atmospheric river event. There is still some uncertainty over the track of this system, but the NWS has placed us under a Winter Storm Warning tonight through Wednesday.  Snowfall amounts right now seem to be all over the map based on different models, but we should easily pick up a foot of snow by Wednesday evening, with the NWS calling for close to 2 feet.  This storm is coming in with strong winds and very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected to develop during the day Wednesday.  Snow will remain in the forecast through Sunday.  

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