Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

The transition to wet snow problems will be the biggest shock to the system over the next 24 hours and we're not sure exactly when that transition will occur. Rain falling on dry snow and moistening snow surfaces are your cues to reduce your exposure to steep slopes, including those above you. Danger will be highest in the eastern and southern Olympics.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Rain or above-freezing temperatures on dry snow will destabilize the upper snowpack. In areas with more than 8" of recent dry snow, these avalanches could be large enough to injure you or worse, running efficiently on a stout crust. Choose route options with less overhead exposure to steep, open slopes and safe exit options in case a snow-to-rain transition occurs while you're out. If rain has already fallen in your area, you can trigger a wet loose avalanche on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Rollerballs are your final warning sign.

     

     

    Example: Wet loose avalanches triggered naturally on steep slopes that may be above you.

    Photo: Alyssa Young

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Slabs will consolidate with wind loading and warming and linger at upper elevations above the rain/snow line. Look for denser over less dense layers and signs or punchy snow layering to confirm the problem. Active wind transport, such as plumes off ridgelines, points toward potentially problematic slopes. Steer around wind-loaded upper elevation slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

    In some areas, a storm slab could be present on all aspects. Use simple slope tests to evaluate the layer before moving onto open slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

    (2/16/2024)

    Wind transport along ridgelines and textured snow on exposed upper elevation slopes. Klahane Bowl. Slopes like these are where you can trigger a small avalanche within wind-affected snow on Saturday.

    Photo: Sam Siemens-Luthy

Avalanche Discussion

We're not sure exactly when the warming or precipitation will impact the area most. Although we expected the warming trend to occur on Friday, the warmup will probably play out Friday night into Saturday. We're expecting mostly light precipitation to arrive as rain Friday night or Saturday up to 5000-5500 ft. If we're wrong about the rain/snow line, the wet loose problem could extend into upper-elevation terrain. You're likely to find an average of 6-8" of snow above the stout 2/11 crust in the Hurricane Ridge area, increasing up to more than a foot on upper-elevation north-facing terrain. Average snow above the 2/11 crust should be 1-2  ft in the Eastern Olympics. Given the larger amounts of dry snow to destabilize and higher forecast rain rates, the Eastern Olympics could develop considerable avalanche danger.  

Observers at Hurricane Ridge encountered easy-to-manage very soft 4" storm slabs near ridgelines and around steeper terrain features. These slabs were becoming a bit thicker at higher elevations but remained soft. Cornices were sensitive along ridgelines, and an intentionally triggered cornice fall produced a small dry loose avalanche that didn't run far. The 6" of fist-density snow has a friable 2 cm crust below it (which includes a layer of small facets). You might find 1-3" of settled snow below that crust above the stout 2/11 crust. This crust represents a new ground in the terrain. There were no notable test results, but the small layer of facets might be problematic in areas with more significant new snow depths. Early season hazards remain significant throughout the Hurricane Ridge terrain. In many areas, the low-density snow barely disguises buried obstacles (trees, rocks) or bare ground.  Photos from the Thursday outing in the gallery.

A fresh crop of 4 mm surface hoar formed Thursday night and stuck around at middle elevations on most aspects during the day Friday.

NWAC may issue a gray "No Rating" for an elevation band when there is not enough snow to present an avalanche hazard.

Regions covered