The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects at the upper elevations that have soft slabs of recent or fresh wind-drifted snow. Slopes that aren't wind-loaded and slopes at low and mid elevations have a MODERATE danger.
With increasing winds and periods of heavy snowfall possible, the avalanche danger may rise this afternoon, including possible natural avalanches.
Riding conditions will be superb on lower-angled slopes that aren't wind-affected.
On slopes facing west through north through east across the mid and upper elevations, it remains possible to trigger a hard slab avalanche breaking 4-6' deep on a deeply-buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow.
Snowfall is forecast to begin late morning,with periods of heavy precipitation possible during the afternoon. The reactivity of any storm snow is all dependent on snowfall rates: expect sensitive soft slabs of storm snow or long-running sluffs during any period of high precipitation intensity.
The PWL avalanche problem is moving in the right direction as we add more snow to our snowpack and the weak layer continues to gain strength. But Thursday's avalanche into old, faceted snow at a Cottonwood resort tells me the problem still exists in isolated areas. If you did trigger an avalanche failing in the PWL, it would be 4-6' deep and well over a hundred feet wide.
Due to the uncertainty and the size of an avalanche failing in the PWL, I continue to avoid steep, northerly slopes at the mid and upper elevations.
Moderate to strong winds from the west will have plenty of fresh snow to create soft slabs of wind-drifted snow on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. These drifts will be 6-18" deep and up to 100' wide. Watch for signs of cracking as an indication of sensitive slabs of wind-drifted or storm snow. Guide and educator John Lemnotis demonstrates how to test for this reactive snow on his split board yesterday in White Pine Canyon:
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Several natural and skier-triggered avalanches were reported from the backcountry on Thursday, with a natural avalanche cycle occurring early afternoon during a period of heavy precipitation intensity (PI). Avalanches were reported on aspects west through north and east, between 9,000 - 10,000' feet, 6-18" deep and up to 100' wide. Avalanches were running within a density inversion in the storm snow or at the interface with the old snow surface. I'm sure there were many more avalanches on Thursday than the 10 we heard about. Eric Ramirez sent us this stunning video of powder cloud coming down from Elk Point at Aspen Grove yesterday.
All recent reported avalanche activity.
A team of UAC forecasters was in the Snake Creek region on Thursday, and their video describes recent avalanche activity and how to assess the snowpack:
This Morning: Temperatures are 15°-25° F and winds are from the southwest through northwest. Between 9,500' and 10,500' winds are gusting 15-25 mph. 11,000' winds are much stronger, gusting into the 50's mph. No new snow overnight.
Snow totals since Wednesday are 12-14" containing 0.75-1.2" of water.
Today may be one of those days .... temperatures will rise into the 20's F and winds will be from the west, increasing throughout the day. Mid-elevation winds will gust into the 20's with upper elevation winds gusting around 50 mph. Snow will develop by late morning, with periods of heavy snow likely this afternoon, with 4-6" of new snow by sunset.
Extended: A break Saturday with partial clearing, followed by another modest system Sunday .... brief break Monday .... snow Tuesday/Wednesday. ❄️
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
