Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

6-12" of very light snow is sitting atop firm crusts from last week's rain and warmup. Dry loose avalanches (sluffs) are likely today on terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Avoid terrain traps such as gullies or depressions and limit exposure above or below cliffs.

Today's avalanche forecast is sponsored by Mile High Powersports of McCall

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    6-12" of very light snow is sitting on top of firm crusts formed during last week's rain and warmup. The rain crust is found on all aspects and elevations. Below 7500', the crust is a much thicker, but slightly softer. Above 7500', the crust gets thinner and stronger, but is still several inches thick. You're most likely to trigger a dry loose avalanche in terrain steeper than 35 degrees above 7000'.  Below 7000', even though there's less snow at the surface you're still likely to see dry loose snow sliding on crusts.

    Although the destructive size of these loose snow avalanches will likely not be large enough to bury a person, they could still pack a punch. On longer, sustained pitches, loose snow could easily push a person off their feet and into consequential terrain such as trees, rock, or over cliffs. Avoid terrain traps where dry loose debris could pile up such as gullies or depressions. Limit exposure above cliffs or other steep terrain.

    (2/7/2024)

    Dry loose snow (sluff) moving easily in steep terrain

    Photo: Kevin Studley

Avalanche Discussion

The rain and warm weather from last week has changed our snowpack significantly. The very warm temperatures and water saturation has helped to strengthen the lower and middle portion of the snowpack. A homogenous slab of very dense snow now makes up most of our mountain snowpack. If you dig down deeper, you will still find older, weak snow near the ground in most places. Due to the strength of the slab and depth of the weak snow, it has become very unlikely to impact this older snow from November. Our primary concern is new snow. Very light snow will slide easily in steep terrain, especially on firm crusts. Yesterday, we found evidence of the rain crust up to 8100'. You can read my observation here. Although winds have been light over the past 48 hours, there is ample of amount of snow available for transport. 6-12" of very light snow is plenty of fuel to build wind slabs if winds do decide to pick up. Pay attention to changing weather throughout the day. The mountains could receive another 3-7" of new snow today through Saturday. This new snow is forecasted to fall with cooler temperatures and minimal wind. This will likely increase the size of our exisiting dry loose avalanche problem.

As you're rolling out of the Francis Wallace winter parking lot, be sure to check out the new BCA Beacon Training Park. Practice your skills with your group before heading out for a ride. Thanks to the FPAC for installing this great training site for motorized users.