If you can find enough snow to play in, the snowpack is generally stable. Because of the recent rains and above freezing temperatures wet loose avalanches could be a problem at low and mid elevations.
Above freezing temperatures and rain have saturated the snowpack at mid and lower elevations. Rollerball pinwheels are a sign of increased likelihood of wet avalanches. If you can find enough snow to slide and ride on be aware that wet loose avalanches can sweep a rider off their feet and carry them into terrain traps.
Photo: Mikey Church
Welcome back. We are excited to be back in action.
The El Nino weather models seem to be holding true for the moment: above average temperatures with below average precipitation are predicted to be the dominant trends this winter. Don’t worry, winter weather events will happen, but we need to remain patient. Moisture, incremental loading, and mild temperatures have contributed to a relatively stable snowpack where it can be found. Decent skiing and riding conditions can be found on north aspects at upper elevations, above 5500ft, but the snow quickly diminishes in quality and quantity as you descend.
The biggest hazard to skiers and riders out there right now is lack of snow. Early season conditions persist with logs, rocks and shrubbery exposed on most elevations and aspects. If you find enough snow to play on, the most likely avalanche hazard is loose wet slides at lower and mid elevations where recent rain and above freezing temperatures have saturated the snowpack. Pinwheel rollerballs, an indicator of the increased likelihood of wet avalanches, could be seen yesterday cascading down steep cut slopes along I-90 and in the backcountry.
Miraculously, a layer of buried surface hoar that formed on November 24th appears to have survived in some isolated locations, most likely wind sheltered openings on north aspects at upper elevations. It’s not something I am overly concerned about, but it is worth keeping an eye out for if you venture into that terrain. If you find this layer, or gather other pertinent data, please consider posting an observation. Observations submitted by the public really help us understand the condition and distribution of elements in the snowpack.
Enjoy the mild weather forecast for the coming week. We will be back with another avalanche forecast on Friday.
Thank you to our IPAC Field Tech Brian Hillard for help creating today’s forecast.
Pray for snow!
