Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A little flick of high-elevation snow means that it's possible a human could trigger a  small avalanche in wind drifted pockets above the snowline. Lower down you'll find wet and variable snow conditions along with difficult travel, posing your largest concern. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    We're receiving just enough snow that the avalanche danger will be slightly elevated on Tuesday. At upper elevations,  inches of snow could accumulate by the end of the day. Light to moderate winds will redistribute snow into slabs. Thicker slabs, 6 inches to 1 foot deep, are where you may be able to trigger an avalanche. Avalanche size isn't expected to be large enough to bury you, but if you're in high-consequence terrain such as above rocks, trees, cliffs, or gullies, getting caught in an avalanche, even if shallow, could still take you for a dangerous ride. This is especially concerning considering how shallow the snowpack currently is, with many early-season hazards exposed.  

    On south-facing slopes, a smooth, firm surface can be found under the new snow, and fresh slabs may slide easily on the underlying layer. On other aspects, especially northerly and at higher elevations. a few inches of soft snow could exist underneath the newly fallen snow. Snow could slide at the new/old snow interface.  For Tuesday, if you travel above snowline, identify thicker drifts of snow and steer clear of them on slopes steeper than 30°, especially if you notice any obvious signs like long, shooting cracks in the snow with your steps. If we get more snow than forecasted, expect larger avalanches that could be more reactive than forecasted. 

    Example photo: Scoured slopes and textured snow surfaces can help you identify thicker wind deposits.

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

Rain will fall at mid and lower elevations Monday night and Tuesday. These surfaces have mainly already been so impacted by wet conditions and refrozen that we don't expect much wet loose avalanche activity. The one exception could be on shady aspects at mid-elevations where previously light, dry snow from Thursday is seeing rain for the first time. Rollerballs and very small wet loose avalanches could result in the previously dry snow on those surfaces.

An observation from Sunday at Green Mountain found high snowlines and thin snow cover on south-facing aspects. The observer also found rain runnels, evidence of the rain event capping the 1-2ft of snow that fell December 9-10.  On shady aspects, dry snow existed beneath the semi-breakable crust. 

In general, your largest concern, especially at lower elevations, is challenging travel with rough, irregular, and patchy snow. Beware of open or shallowly covered creeks, rocks and stumps that could end your season way too early.  If you get out in the West Central zone, send us an observation so we can write better forecasts for you in this data-sparse zone! 

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