Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The weather is changing and we'll start the day with rain but will likely see a little under a foot of snow by the end of the day. Danger will increase during that day as snow builds up and wind redistributes it into drifts. Identify  thicker and firmer-feeling wind-drifted slabs and steer around them on steep slopes when the drifts grow deeper than about 6 inches.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Conditons will be very different on Friday from the last few days. Avalanche danger will probably start on low in the morning but expect the danger to rise as rain transitions to snow and new snow depths increase. We may see 6-10"  of snow by the end of the day.  During your outing, focus on new snow and wind activity, as you can expect conditions to change. Danger will be highest at upper elevations where we have a more consistent underlying snowpacks and more wind-effect. At lower elevations we have a minimal snowpack and avalanches aren't expected to run on small snow patches and bare ground. 

    Moderate to strong winds will redistribute snow, and drifts will grow. You may find these drifts in gullies, around rocky outcroppings, or along ridgelines.  Identify features that may be wind-rippled, or possibly smooth.  Identify hollow-sounding or firmer-feeling snow. These indicate wind-affected snow, which you can expect to be more reactive.  Search for other obvious signs of instability like long, shooting cracks from your feet or sled.  Avoid slopes steeper than 30° when drifts are around 6" or deeper.

    Example photo: Clear signs of wind loaded slopes can help you anticipate slabs. Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

Right now isn't a good time to get caught in an avalanche, even moreso than usual, because if you take a ride you'll probably be hitting rocks and trees with this low early season snowpack. Snow is falling on mainly firm old snow surfaces, which means the new snow may slide easily on the old surface. This is the case on all aspects, but it's most obvious on south-facing terrain. There are a lot of rocks and trees exposed. Open creeks are present everywhere. A lot of obstacles will subtly be hidden under the new snow. This also includes hard, chunky avalanche debris piles.

We haven't gone below freezing for days, and most of the snowpack is wet, especially at mid and lower elevations. The surface is semi-supportable. I went to the north side of the Mountain Loop Highway on Wednesday and was shocked with how poor the snow cover was. The snowpack was wet for the full 3 feet of it at 5000ft. Snowline started after about 3000ft. Even at 4000ft there wasn't any snow in areas of thick trees. 

If you make it into the backcountry please send us an observation. Also keep in mind that conditions will be very different on Friday from many of the days we've had so far this year. 

Regions covered