Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You are most likely to trigger a large avalanche on shady slopes (NW-N-NE-E facing) at middle and upper elevations. The consequences of triggering an avalanche today remain exactly the same as yesterday. Make your terrain selection accordingly and evaluate the snowpack where you are traveling. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Where are you more likely to trigger an avalanche on this layer? Weak snow is buried 2-3 feet deep on most shady middle and upper-elevation slopes. Avoiding steep, broad slopes (even those that are treed and may appear "safer") on these aspects is one way to manage this hazard. As dry conditions persist, folks will be drawn to seek more sheltered slopes, which is exactly where this avalanche problem is.  We are not experiencing as much snowpack collapsing or consistent propagation in snowpits—obvious signs of snowpack instability—as last week. Unfortunately, the decrease in easily observed snowpack instabilities does not mean slopes are safe, and careful assessment of the terrain you enter is still required to manage this problem. 

    Additional Discussion: I don't expect a skiff of new snowfall today to change our current holding pattern. Be aware that any new snowfall will be falling on a dry and weak snow surface, and may move easily. Additional objective hazards include current "low-tide" conditions and exposed rocks, trees, and more, at all elevations.

     

     

    A persistent slab avalanche on Taylor Mountain that occurred 12/8. Steep, rocky, and wind loaded terrain like this is where you are most likely to encounter this problem.

Avalanche Discussion

We enter a dance each season with a persistent slab. Arguably, the character and depth of said dance partner vary in infinite small ways from year to year. But the general dance moves remain the same: snowpack test scores produce fewer unstable results as time passes, and you see folks skiing and riding in avalanche terrain without consequences. But negotiating with a snowy mountain is always complex and dangerous. 

None of these things mean that the snowpack is now stable; they mean that it is slightly more stable than it was. Current conditions are a great example of when taking the time to evaluate the snowpack before committing to any slope, being thoughtful about terrain selection, and steering clear of the locations highlighted for the problem above can reduce your risk and increase your margin. Even something as simple as probing depths can help you feel and assess this structure and improve the efficacy of any pit on an aspect or elevation. We all too often slip into confidence without a push in that direction. So take the time. Make sure you're well-informed about who you're dancing with. Picturing the consequences of a slide in the terrain you are in before committing to any steeper slope is a great way to bring your mind into the right here, right now, and disengage from complacency and biases we can all have with persistent problems. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain without any additional assessment today, you choose to accept a very wide range of outcomes.  

 

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