Seward and Lost Lake

It is generally unlikely we will see any avalanches big enough to bury a person today. There may still be isolated pockets of unstable, stubborn wind-drifted snow. Travel one at a time in steep terrain, keep eyes on your partners, and have exit routes planned in case you end up finding one of those unlikely places where unstable snow still exists.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

TODAY: Join CNFAC for the annual Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day from 12–4 PM at the motorized lot! In addition to free burgers and hot dogs, you can run rescue drills, chat with forecasters, and demo sleds with AMDS, Anchorage Yamaha/ Polaris. Meet the forecasters and partners from the Alaska Avalanche School, Anchorage Nordic Ski Patrol, and Alaska Search and Rescue Dogs. Come refresh your skills, talk snowpack, and eat a hot dog or three!

Recent Avalanches: There was a small skier-triggered wind slab avalanche at 1400' on Mt Eva on Tuesday. The avalanche was about 1’ deep, up to 100 wide.

After a full week of relentless winds and no precipitation, most surfaces are locked up and it is unlikely that someone will be able to trigger an avalanche large enough to bury or injure a person. The trace to 2" of snow expected this weekend is unlikely to change the avalanche equation. That doesn't mean we're ruling out all avalanches. While conditions are generally stable, there are a few things to keep in mind as you navigate the backcountry:

• Wind Slabs that formed earlier this week may still be lingering on isolated slopes in the alpine. We haven't seen any widespread activity, but this type of avalanche can really never be ruled out. Mik's observation from Mt. Eva on Tuesday is a good example. You can assess this problem by looking for relatively stiff snow sitting on top of softer snow.
• Dry Loose Avalanches (sluffs) have been moving fast and quickly entraining a large volume of snow wherever there is soft snow on the surface. The easiest way to manage this problem is to let your sluff run in front of you before you commit to a steep slope. You can also travel across the fall line so you don't end up getting caught as a smaller avalanche gains speed and volume.
• There may still be some isolated terrain where a layer of faceted snow that was buried by last week's storm may produce a Persistent Slab Avalanche today. This would happen in terrain that harbored softer, faceted snow on the surface through the February drought and wind events. If you got out during the end of February, you may remember that that is a very narrow slice of terrain for most of our forecast area. These are becoming less likely as the recent storm snow has either faceted out or gotten scoured by winds, essentially removing the 'slab' part of the slab avalanche recipe. But it is impossible to rule out that problem entirely.

The danger is Low, but there are clearly still some things to watch out for. As always, if you want to avoid all avalanche problems, you can simply stick to low-angle terrain outside of avalanche runout zones.